Conservative Total

Claims In This Section

Reviewers should be able to move from section to claim without leaving the generated evidence path.

Section Status

Built exactly to frozen Blueprint D-022. No blended grand total. No averaged figures. No Section 13 gap estimated. A-018 and A-037 are carried as flagged limitations. Future evidence creates v1.1+ and never rewrites v1.0.

14.0 Population readiness audit

Every component was verified against the data-integrity gate: one Crosswalk owner, one number type, one basis lane, one Source ID, one mark, exclusions tied to explicit rules, pending items carried rather than omitted, and reproducibility from locked sections.

Readiness verdict: pass. Every component satisfies the requirements; population authorized.

14.1 Table 14-B - Total A, overseas (spending)

14.2 Table 14-A - Total A, domestic (spending)

14.3 Table 14-C - Authority register (never summed into Total A)

14.4 Table 14-D - Total A lane subtotals

There is no row that sums across lanes or bases. By design under D-020 and A-017, the Conservative Total is this set of subtotals, not one number.

Plain-language conservative floor: on an FY2023 outlay/disbursement basis, the dominant identifiable component is overseas international assistance at approximately $71.9B. Overseas net-new military aid adds approximately $1.6B per year recurring and approximately $50.9B cumulative on a separate multi-year basis. Domestic quantifiable Total A is small: noncitizen SSI at approximately $2.21B plus emergency Medicaid federal share pending A-037. Most domestic spending touching non-citizens is unquantifiable from primary evidence and sits in Section 13.

14.5 and 14.6 - Total B bridge and Section 13 register

Total B is at least approximately $2.21B from SSI, the only determinate component. All other components are indeterminate because U.S.-capture shares are unpublished. Total B is never assumed equal to A and never assumed zero.

Section 14-G unquantified register: eligible-immigrant Medicaid (A-023); SNAP non-citizen benefit dollars (A-025); WIC and school meals (A-026); TANF non-citizen dollars (A-027); ACTC/CTC via ITIN (A-029); eligible-noncitizen housing (A-030); federal K-12 share (A-032); eligible-noncitizen student aid (A-033); Head Start, CCDF, SSBG, CSBG, LIHEAP (A-034); FQHC, public health, FEMA (A-035). Each is real spending with no published citizenship breakout and is therefore unquantifiable from primary evidence.

14.7 to 14.9 - Conflicts, confidence, and version history

Conflicting-data register: emergency Medicaid is carried side by side as audit FY2023 approximately $3.8B federal plus state, House Budget Committee $16.2B, and CBO $27B over different windows. These are the same dataset in different periods. The federal-only FY2023 share remains A-037. CBO surge projections are context only.

Version history: Version 1.0 populated this session as the initial population per D-022 with A-018 and A-037 carried as flagged limits.

14.10 Hostile-reader review

1. Summing disbursements with obligations fails because Table 14-D uses single-type subtotals and shows the Section 3 obligations only as an alternate view.
2. Blending fiscal years or merging the $50.9B cumulative into an annual figure fails because Lane 4 is never added to Lanes 1 or 2.
3. Double-counting Section 3 military aid fails because D-017 keeps Section 5 net-new only.
4. Treating ORR appropriations as spending fails because ORR sits only in the authority register.
5. The federal-plus-state emergency Medicaid figure would have succeeded against a prior draft, but now the line is pending A-037 and carries no value in any subtotal.
6. The SSI point-in-time basis partially lands as a survivable, disclosed limitation.
7. The absence of a grand total does not land because a grand total across incompatible bases would be misleading.
8. Total B indeterminacy is a disclosed central limitation, not a hidden defect.
9. Section 13 gaps as “convenient omissions” do not land because each gap is registered with the owner, agency, and resolving evidence.
10. Confidence laundering fails because confidence is weakest-link per lane with no cross-lane blend.
11. Overseas dwarfing domestic is itself a finding, not padding.
12. Section 3 including money to U.S. implementers lands only against Total B, not Total A, and that distinction is the point.

Verdict: Section 14 survives hostile review with disclosed limitations, not defects. No averaging, no blended total, no estimated gap, and no appropriation-as-spending remains in the locked section.

14.11 to 14.13 Lock checklist, reproducibility, and permanent flagged limitations

All 15 lock-checklist items pass: exclusions cite rules, no BA enters spending subtotals, no cross-lane sums exist, all Section 13 items remain in the gap register, Total A and Total B are never merged, confidence stays weakest-link, conflicting data are shown side by side, and every figure carries type, lane, date, Source ID, and confidence.

Second-researcher reproducibility attestation: an independent researcher with D-022, locked Sections 3, 5, 7, and 9, plus the Source Library, can reconstruct Lane 1 at approximately $71.9B, recurring obligations at approximately $1.6B per year, Lane 3 at approximately $2.21B, and Lane 4 at approximately $50.9B without judgment calls. Pending lines A-018 and A-037 carry no value and therefore do not affect any subtotal.

• A-018 - ORR consolidated obligations / outlays not extractable; ORR appears in the authority register only.
• A-037 - federal-only FY2023 emergency Medicaid share not isolated; the line carries no value.
• A-005 - international-assistance U.S.-capture share unpublished, making Total B indeterminate for Section 3.
• SSI basis - Lane 3 is point-in-time December 2021 at Medium confidence.

These do not block lock and remain permanent until superseded by v1.1+. Section 14 is locked in Version 1.0.